Charts updated around the middle of the month following the end of each quarter.
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2021
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2019
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2018
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€/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*(1) | Average gas price* (1) ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price** (1) | European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third quarter 2024 | 1.10 | 80.3 | 77.0 | 5.78 | 9.91 | 15.4 |
| Second quarter 2024 | 1.08 | 85.0 | 81.0 | 5.05 | 9.32 | 44.9 |
| First quarter 2024 | 1.09 | 83.2 | 78.9 | 5.11 | 9.58 | 71.7 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/t), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies.
(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the third quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to be at 2.4 Mboe/d, thanks to the ramp up of the Mero 2 project in Brazil that partially offsets unplanned shutdowns in Ichthys LNG and security-related disruptions in Libya. Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect the decrease in liquid prices compensated by an increase in gas prices.
- Integrated LNG results are expected to be above $1 billion, in a context of low market volatility and a decrease in production due to unplanned maintenance on Ichthys LNG.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be broadly in line with the second quarter.
- Downstream results are expected to sharply decrease given much lower refining margins in Europe and in the Rest of the World.
Main elements impacting the second quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to be within the high end of the guidance range, close to 2.45 Mboe/d. Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect this production level and the positive evolution of the oil price environment, partially offset by a decrease in gas realizations.
- In a context of low volatility in the markets, Integrated LNG results are expected to be broadly in line with first quarter, while reflecting a slight decrease in realized prices.
- Given seasonality, Integrated Power results are expected to be around $500 million, with quarterly cash flow expected to be in line with the $2.5 to $3 billion annual guidance.
- Downstream results will reflect the decrease in refining margins in Europe and in the Middle East, but will be partially compensated by a higher utilization of refineries and an increase in marketing results.
Main elements impacting the first quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to be stable quarter-on-quarter, above 2.45 Mboe/d, despite the Canadian oil sands assets disposals effective during the fourth quarter 2023, thanks to the growth in LNG production and the startups of Mero 2 in Brazil and Akpo West in Nigeria.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be up quarter-on-quarter, thanks to growth in the business.
- Downstream results will reflect the increase in refining margins, as the utilization rate of refineries during the first quarter 2024 was relatively stable compared to the fourth quarter 2023.
- Due to the low volatility during the first quarter 2024, oil and LNG trading results are expected to be in line with their historical averages.
Sensitivities 2024*
| Change | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income | Estimated impact on cash flow from operations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ par € | -/+ 0.1 B$ | ~0 B$ |
| Average liquids price ** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.3 B$ | +/- 2.8 B$ |
| European gas price - NBP / TTF | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.4 B$ |
| European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.5 B$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2024. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.
***
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of 2024 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “will”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “may”, “likely”, “might”, “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, technological innovations, meteorological conditions and events, as well as socio-demographic, economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Readers are cautioned not to consider forward-looking statements as accurate, but as an expression of the Company’s views only as of the date this document is published. TotalEnergies SE and its subsidiaries have no obligation, make no commitment and expressly disclaim any responsibility to investors or any stakeholder to update or revise, particularly as a result of new information or future events, any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document. In addition, the Company has not verified, and is under no obligation to verify any third-party data contained in this document or used in the estimates and assumptions or, more generally, forward-looking statements published in this document.
The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Additionally, the developments of environmental and climate change-related issues in this document are based on various frameworks and the interests of various stakeholders which are subject to evolve independently of our will. Moreover, our disclosures on such issues, including climate-related disclosures, may include information that is not necessarily "material" under US securities laws for SEC reporting purposes or under applicable securities law.
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items described below (adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income), return on equity (ROE), return on average capital employed (ROACE), gearing ratio, operating cash flow before working capital changes, the shareholder rate of return. These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Euro amounts presented for the fully adjusted-diluted earnings per share represent dollar amounts converted at the average euro-dollar (€-$) exchange rate for the applicable period and are not the result of financial statements prepared in euros.
Cautionary Note to US Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to separately disclose proved, probable and possible reserves that a company has determined in accordance with SEC rules. We may use certain terms in this document, such as “potential reserves” or “resources”, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. US investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in the Form 20-F of TotalEnergies SE, File N° 1-10888, available from us at 2, place Jean Millier – Arche Nord Coupole/Regnault – 92078 Paris-La Défense Cedex, France, or at the Company website totalenergies.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or on the SEC’s website sec.gov.
| €/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*(1) ($/b) | Average gas price* (1) ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price** (1) ($/Mbtu) | Variable Cost Margin, European refining *** ($/t) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2023 | 1.08 | 84.3 | 80.2 | 6.17 | 10.28 | 50.1 |
| Third quarter 2023 | 1.09 | 86.7 | 78.9 | 5.47 | 9.56 | 95.1 |
| Second quarter 2023 | 1.09 | 78.1 | 72.0 | 5.98 | 9.84 | 42.7 |
| First quarter 2023 | 1.07 | 81.2 | 73.4 | 8.89 | 13.27 | 87.8 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the fourth quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected around 2.45 Mboe/d (as indicated at the end of October), benefiting from LNG production growth, partially compensating for the Canadian oil sands assets disposals, effective this quarter. Due to these disposals, the effective tax rate of Exploration & Production is expected to increase.
- Integrated LNG results will reflect the positive evolution of prices and production volumes.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be above $500 million, with the fourth quarter cash-flow further benefiting from dividends distribution from equity affiliates.
- Downstream results are impacted by the decrease in refining margins and by weak chemicals demand in Europe. In addition, the refining utilization rate is lower this quarter, due to turnarounds at Satorp and Antwerp and the gradual restart of the Port Arthur refinery.
Main elements impacting the third quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to be nearly 2.5 Mboe/d, benefiting from the start-up of Absheron in Azerbaijan and the effective entry into the Ratawi field (GGIP) in Iraq. The Exploration & Production effective tax rate is expected to be lower in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, notably due to the lower seasonal relative weight of North Sea production.
- The Integrated LNG result is expected to be in line with the previous quarter, in an overall comparable environment.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be higher at nearly $500 million.
- With a global refinery utilization rate of 84%, downstream results will benefit from the increase in European refining margins. It should be noted that the Port Arthur refinery in the United Stated was impacted by an unplanned shutdown since August.
Main elements impacting the second quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected at nearly 2.5 Mboe/d this quarter, down about 50 kboe/d compared to the previous quarter mainly due to planned maintenance in the North Sea. Exploration & Production results are expected to be in line with the evolution of the environment.
- Despite the expected significant impact of a less favorable environment on results from the Integrated LNG segment, illustrated by an average LNG price near 10 $/Mbtu, cash flow should remain high thanks to high margins captured in 2022 for 2023 deliveries.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be above $400 million, higher than previous quarter.
- Downstream results are expected to be in line with the decrease in refining margins.
- A working capital release is expected, which should provide a tailwind to cash flow.
Main elements impacting the first quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to exceed 2.5 Mboe/d this quarter, up by close to 50 kboe/d compared to the previous quarter*, benefiting in particular from the start-up of gas production on Block 10 in Oman and the acquisition of an interest in the SARB / Umm Lulu oil concession in the United Arab Emirates.
- Besides the effect of the deconsolidation of Novatek as of January 1, 2023, the results of the Integrated LNG segment, while remaining very significant, will be impacted by the lower demand for LNG in Europe due to the mild winter weather and high inventory levels.
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be higher given the sustained refining margins during the quarter.
* Restated for production related to TotalEnergies’ stake in Novatek.
Sensitivities 2023*
| Variation | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income | Estimated impact on cash flow from operations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ par € | -/+ 0.1 G$ | ~0 G$ |
| Average liquids price ** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.5 G$ | +/- 3.0 G$ |
| European gas price - NBP / TTF | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.4G$ | +/- 0.4 G$ |
| Variable Cost Margin, European refining (MCV) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 G$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2023. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities.
The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.
A new market indicator for European refining margin
TotalEnergies will introduce, from 1Q24, a new market indicator for European refining, the “European Refining Margin Marker” to replace the “Variable Cost Margin, European refining”. This indicator will be calculated based on public market prices ($/t) with a formula using a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies, as disclosed here below.
Corresponding 2023 data is provided below to reflect this change.
4Q23 | 3Q23 | 2Q23 | 1Q23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) ($/t) | 52.6 | 100.6 | 40.1 | 90.7 |
The formula may be reviewed on a yearly basis in case of changes in market conditions, such as global supply and demand balances, CO2 EU ETS evolution and/or TotalEnergies’ European refining portfolio.
NWE Crude Markers | %weight |
|---|---|
High Sulfur (Arab Light, Forties, Johan Sverdrup) | 50.0% |
Low Sulfur (WTP, Ekofisk) | 50.0% |
NWE Product Markers | %weight |
|---|---|
LPG | 3.0% |
Naphtha | 7.0% |
Gasoline | 20.0% |
Distillates | 52.5% |
Fuel oil | 12.0% |
Variable costs | |
|---|---|
Natural Gas (TTF) | -2.5% |
CO2 (EU ETS) | -7.0% |
Non energy costs | -8.0€/t |
***
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the first quarter 2023 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value) -adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
| €/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*(1) ($/b) | Average gas price* (1) ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price** (1) ($/Mbtu) | Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2022 | 1.02 | 88.8 | 80.6 | 12.74 | 14.83 | 73.6 |
| Third quarter 2022 | 1.01 | 100.8 | 93.6 | 16.83 | 21.51 | 99.2 |
| Second quarter 2022 | 1.06 | 113.9 | 102.9 | 11.01 | 13.96 | 145.7 |
| First quarter 2022 | 1.12 | 102.2 | 90.1 | 12.27 | 13.60 | 46.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the fourth quarter aggregates
- Cash flow from LNG business and gas trading activities is expected to be higher than previous quarter, despite lower gas prices, benefiting from our integrated portfolio.
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to exceed 2.8 Mboe/d this quarter, up 5% over the quarter, benefiting from project ramp-ups (Mero 1, Ikike) and the restart of Kashagan production.
- Downstream results are expected to remain strong, without replicating the performances reached over the two previous quarters, which benefited from a highly favorable environment.
- In line with the applicable accounting standards, the UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) will be reported in the fourth quarter adjusted results for 0.4 B$, excluding a 0.3 B$ negative deferred tax impact accounted as special item. The EPL impact in the 2022 adjusted results is therefore expected to be 1 B$.
- The EU solidarity contribution for 2022, including the electricity production infra-marginal income contribution for 2022, will be reported in the fourth quarter as part of special items for a total of 1.1 B$.The impairment related to the decision to no longer equity account for the 19.4% stake in Novatek starting December 31, 2022 is estimated to be around 4 B$ after taking into account the ruble evolution.
- Share buybacks amounted to 2 B$ in the fourth quarter 2022 and should continue over the first quarter 2023 at the same pace.
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the third quarter
- LNG assets performance is expected to increase strongly as a result of higher average LNG price, up 50%.
- Performance of the gas, LNG and power trading activities is expected to remain high, our integrated portfolio enabling to capture opportunities in a volatile and dislocated environment.
- Upstream production is expected to be 70 kboe/d lower than in Q2, mainly due to unplanned outages in Kashagan.
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to remain high thanks to strong distillate margins, albeit lower than the previous quarter due to the decrease in gasoline margins in Europe and in the US.
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the second quarter
- Upstream production is expected to be 0.1 Mboe/d lower than in the first quarter, mainly due to disruptions in Nigeria and Libya for security reasons, as well as a higher volume of planned maintenance
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be exceptional given the very high levels of distillate and gasoline cracks, as well as the contribution of the crude oil and petroleum products trading activities, expected to replicate the outperformance of the first quarter of 2022
- Performance of the gas, LNG and power trading activities is expected to remain high, but without replicating the exceptional contribution of the first quarter of 2022
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the first quarter
- Average gas price and average LNG price do not take into account gas and LNG trading activities, which results are expected to be high and comparable to the fourth quarter 2021, capturing optimization opportunities generated by the large LNG trading portfolio in the prevailing high gas spot price environment.
- The European refining Variable Cost Margin increased significantly, notably due to sharply higher distillate cracks, but continues to be affected by high energy costs.
2022 Sensitivities*
| Change | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income | Estimated impact on cash flow from operations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ per € | -/+ 0.1 B$ | ~0 B$ |
| Average liquids price** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.7 B$ | +/- 3.2 G$ |
| European gas price - NBP / TTF*** | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.5 B$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
| Variable cost margin, European refining (VCM) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2022. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
Sensitivity to European gas price has been exceptionally updated during third quarter (see ***).
** In a 60 $/b Brent environment.
*** Sensitivity including UK Energy Profits Levy.
Sensitivity +/- 0.4 B$ starting 3Q 2022, related to UK and Norway taxes
***
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the fourth quarter 2022 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value) -adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
| €/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price* ($/b) | Average gas price*(1) ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price**(1) ($/Mbtu) | Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2021 | 1.14 | 79.8 | 72.6 | 11.38 | 13.12 | 16.7 |
| Third Quarter 2021 | 1.18 | 73.5 | 67.1 | 6.33 | 9.10 | 8.8 |
| Second quarter 2021 | 1.21 | 69.0 | 62.9 | 4.43 | 6.59 | 10.2 |
| First quarter 2021 | 1.20 | 61.1 | 56.4 | 4.06 | 6.08 | 5.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates (excluding stock value variation).
**Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates (excluding stock value variation). .
(1)Does not take into account gas and LNG trading activities, which results are expected to be significantly higher compared to the third quarter 2021, capturing optimization opportunities generated by large LNG trading portfolio in the prevailing high gas spot price environment.
***This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons). Data restated in 2Q21 environment for energy costs were 35.7 $/t in 4Q21 and 20.5 $/t in 3Q21.
***
Disclaimer
Data is based on TotalEnergies’ reporting and is not audited. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of the main indicators.
| €/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price* ($/b) | Average gas price* ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price** ($/Mbtu) | Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2020 | 1.19 | 44.2 | 41.0 | 3.31 | 4.90 | 4.6 |
| Third Quarter 2020 | 1.17 | 42.9 | 39.9 | 2.52 | 3.57 | -2.7 |
| Second Quarter 2020 | 1.10 | 29.6 | 23.4 | 2.61 | 4.40 | 14.3 |
| First quarter 2020 | 1.10 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 3.35 | 6.32 | 26.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in Volume for consolidated affiliates (excluding stock value variation).
**Sales in $ / Sales in Volume for consolidated and equity affiliates (excluding stock value variation). This indicator reflects the combined effect of sales volumes and prices of long-term contracts and spot sales. The share of spot sales volumes increased in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter 2020 due to deferments of some LNG uplifts by some long term contract buyers, while the average long-term contract price was only reduced by 16% because of deferred impact of the oil price decrease.
***This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by Total’s European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by Total’s European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
***
Disclaimer
Data is based on Total’s reporting and is not audited. To the extent permitted by law, TOTAL SE disclaims all liability from the use of the main indicators.
| €/$ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price* ($/b) | Average gas price* ($/Mbtu) | Average LNG price** ($/Mbtu) | Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t)** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2019 | 1.11 | 63.1 | 59.1 | 3.76 | 6.52 | 30.2 |
| Third quarter 2019 | 1.11 | 62.0 | 58.0 | 3.48 | 5.93 | 47.4 |
| Second quarter 2019 | 1.12 | 68.9 | 63.7 | 3.82 | 5.69 | 27.6 |
| First quarter 2019 | 1.14 | 63.1 | 58.7 | 4.51 | 7.20 | 33,0 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in Volume for consolidated affiliates (excluding stock value variation).
**Sales in $ / Sales in Volume for consolidated and equity affiliates (excluding stock value variation).
***This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by Total’s European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by Total’s European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
***
Disclaimer
Data is based on Total’s reporting and is not audited. To the extent permitted by law, TOTAL S.A. disclaims all liability from the use of the main indicators.
Note: The indicators for average liquids price and average gas price have been amended and a new indicator of variable cost margin for European refining has been introduced in replacement of the ERMI (European Refining Margin Indicator). Corresponding 2018 data has been restated to reflect these changes.
| $/€ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price* ($/b) | Average gas price* ($/Mbtu) | Variable cost margin, European refining ($/t)** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2018 | 1.14 | 68.8 | 59.2 | 5.01 | 40.8 |
| Third Quarter 2018 | 1.16 | 75.2 | 68.8 | 5.06 | 47.2 |
| Second Quarter 2018 | 1.19 | 74.4 | 68.4 | 4.62 | 33.9 |
| First Quarter 2018 | 1.23 | 66.8 | 60.0 | 4.79 | 29.8 |
* Sales in $ / sales in volume for consolidated subsidiaries (no longer including stock value variation).
** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by Total’s European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by Total’s European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tonnes). The previous ERMI indicator was intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region.
***
Disclaimer
Data is based on Total’s reporting and is not audited. To the extent permitted by law, TOTAL S.A. disclaims all liability from the use of the restated main indicators.
| $/€ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2017 | 1.18 | 61.3 | 57.6 | 4.23 | 35.5 |
| Third Quarter 2017 | 1.17 | 52.1 | 48.9 | 4.05 | 48.2 |
| Second Quarter 2017 | 1.10 | 49.6 | 45.1 | 3.93 | 41.0 |
| First Quarter 2017 | 1.06 | 53.7 | 49.2 | 4.10 | 38.9 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2016 | 1.08 | 49.3 | 46.1 | 3.89 | 41.0 |
| Third Quarter 2016 | 1.12 | 45.9 | 41.4 | 3.45 | 25.5 |
| Second Quarter 2016 | 1.13 | 45.6 | 43.0 | 3.43 | 35.0 |
| First Quarter 2016 | 1.10 | 33.9 | 31.0 | 3.46 | 35.1 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2015 | 1.10 | 38.1 | 43.8 | 38.1 | 4.45 |
| Third Quarter 2015 | 1.11 | 54.8 | 50.5 | 44.0 | 4.47 |
| Second Quarter 2015 | 1.11 | 54.1 | 61.9 | 58.2 | 4.67 |
| First Quarter 2015 | 1.13 | 47.1 | 53.9 | 49.5 | 5.38 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2014 | 1.25 | 27.6 | 76.6 | 61.7 | 6.29 |
| Third Quarter 2014 | 1.33 | 29.9 | 101.9 | 94.0 | 6.40 |
| Second Quarter 2014 | 1.37 | 10.9 | 109.7 | 103.0 | 6.52 |
| First Quarter 2014 | 1.37 | 6.6 | 108.2 | 102.1 | 7.06 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2013 | 1.36 | 10.1 | 109.2 | 102.5 | 7.36 |
| Third Quarter 2013 | 1.32 | 10.6 | 110.3 | 107.2 | 7.18 |
| Second Quarter 2013 | 1.31 | 24.1 | 102.4 | 96.6 | 6.62 |
| First Quarter 2013 | 1.32 | 26.9 | 112.6 | 106.7 | 7.31 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2012 | 1.30 | 33.9 | 110.1 | 106.4 | 6.94 |
| Third Quarter 2012 | 1.25 | 51.0 | 109.5 | 107.6 | 6.0 |
| Second Quarter 2012 | 1.28 | 38.2 | 108.3 | 101.6 | 7.10 |
| First Quarter 2012 | 1.31 | 20.9 | 118.6 | 115.2 | 7.16 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2011 | 1.35 | 15.1 | 109.3 | 104.3 | 6.79 |
| Third Quarter 2011 | 1.41 | 13.4 | 113.4 | 106.8 | 6.56 |
| Second Quarter 2011 | 1.44 | 16.3 | 117.0 | 110.6 | 6.60 |
| First Quarter 2011 | 1.37 | 24.6 | 105.4 | 99.5 | 6.19 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2010 | 1.36 | 32.3 | 86.5 | 83.7 | 5.62 |
| Third Quarter 2010 | 1.29 | 16.4 | 76.9 | 72.8 | 5.13 |
| Second Quarter 2010 | 1.27 | 31.2 | 78.2 | 74.8 | 4.82 |
| First Quarter 2010 | 1.38 | 29.5 | 76.4 | 74.2 | 5.06 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins TRCV* ($/t)** | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2009 | 1.48 | 5.7 | 11.7 | 74.5 | 70.6 | 5.07 |
| Third Quarter 2009 | 1.43 | 6.6 | 12.0 | 68.1 | 65.1 | 4.89 |
| Second Quarter 2009 | 1.36 | 12.4 | 17.1 | 59.1 | 54.8 | 4.71 |
| First Quarter 2009 | 1.30 | 34.7 | 30.5 | 44.5 | 41.5 | 5.98 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2008 | 1.32 | 41.4 | 55.5 | 49.4 | 7.57 |
| Third Quarter 2008 | 1.51 | 45.0 | 115.1 | 107.8 | 8.05 |
| Second Quarter 2008 | 1.56 | 40.2 | 121.2 | 114.9 | 7.29 |
| First Quarter 2008 | 1.50 | 24.6 | 96.7 | 90.7 | 6.67 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.
| $/€ | European refining margins ERMI* ($/t)** | Brent ($/b) | Average liquids price*** ($/b) | Average gas price*** ($/Mbtu) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth Quarter 2007 | 1.45 | 30.1 | 88.5 | 84.5 | 6.08 |
| Third Quarter 2007 | 1.37 | 23.9 | 74.7 | 71.4 | 4.83 |
| Second Quarter 2007 | 1.35 | 42.8 | 68.8 | 65.7 | 4.94 |
| First Quarter 2007 | 1.31 | 33.0 | 57.8 | 55.0 | 5.69 |
* European Refining Margin Indicator (ERMI) is an indicator intended to represent the margin after variable costs for a hypothetical complex refinery located around Rotterdam in Northern Europe that processes a mix of crude oil and other inputs commonly supplied to this region to produce and market the main refined products at prevailing prices in this region. - The indicator margin may not be representative of the actual margins achieved by Total in any period because of Total's particular refinery configurations, product mix effects or other company-specific operating conditions.
** 1 $/t = 0.136 $/b
*** consolidated subsidiaries, excluding fixed margin contracts, including hydrocarbon production overlifting / underlifting position valued at market price.